Your home was best before April 2004

by Money Doctor Monday 28 April, 2008

In January, Fool.co.uk predicted that house prices would fall 20% this year and slashing the average price of a home in Britain from £196,000 to £153,400.

As a result, did you know that your house has a best by date?

No? Well it does if you live in certain parts of the country!

  • If you bought before spring 2004 you are sitting pretty
A 20% fall in house prices will bring down the average price of a house in the UK to spring 2004 levels. So, if you bought your home after then you will find you have made a capital loss.

Put another way: your home was "best before" April 2004 because it will be worth less than four years ago. This does not mean you are in negative equity because negative equity is related to the size of a loan taken out to buy a property. A capital gain or loss is solely a function of the price of an asset.

  • The West Country is most vulnerable to a property downturn
If you are someone who lives in the South West, you should have bought your homes earlier than the national best-before date to sidestep a 20% fall in property prices. In short, you should have bought your home before January 2004.

In the winter of 2003, the average price of a home in the region was £163,000, which is approximately a fifth less than the average price today.

The East Midlands and the South East also fare badly. If you are a homeowner in the East Midlands who bought your property after January 2004 you are most likely to incur a capital loss. The best-before date for the South East is also January 2004.

Need some mortgage advice? Speak to an impartial adviser who can search all mortgage lenders, some you may never have heard of, to find the best deal for your situation.

  • The luck of the Irish and the canny Scots
You should be happy if you are a Celt.

The best-before dates for Scotland and Northern Ireland are April and October 2006 respectively; which is two years later than the national average. Since spring 2004, property prices in Northern Ireland and Scotland have more than doubled' compare this to the 20% increase nationally.

David Kuo, Head of Personal Finance at Fool.co.uk, says:

"A 20% fall in house prices will mean that many people who bought their homes after spring 2004 will suffer a capital loss.

"It is vital to differentiate between capital loss and negative equity. While a capital loss is beyond the control of homeowners, mortgage borrowers can overcome negative equity by reducing the size of their outstanding mortgage compared to the value of the property.

"It is also important to appreciate that falling house prices are not disastrous, even for many existing homeowners. A 20% fall in house prices across the board will narrow the gap between the value of your home and a property further up the housing ladder. It will make up-sizing more affordable.

"Fool.co.uk therefore urges the Government to stop meddling in the housing market, and allow property prices to find their own levels. In its attempts to help homeowners, it is killing with kindness. It is holding back a dynamic market that needs to fall as well as rise to move forward."

So, should the Government stay out of the mortgage and housing markets, or should they be doing their very best to help homeowners?

Are you also worried about your house having a best buy date?

Why not let us know in the comments?

© Fool.co.uk 2008

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Comments

Dan says:

Tuesday 29 April, 2008 / 13:04

Personally I think the government should keep out of fixing house prices... put simply I don't trust that what the government do in the housing market will ultimately save it from going down at some point in the near future... so a) I won't be buying a house until the prices crash (I'm 27 only just moved out my parents and started renting, having waited since 2005 for prices to drop, I was just getting excited that son prices will be coming down, I was dissappointed to hear that the govenment are trying to up hold prices) and b) Tax payers money is what goes to holding up the prices anyway, and lets face it we are taxed to much....

On a different note I think they should do away with income tax and add more VAT that way tax dodging scum won't be able to lay their bill on honest tax payers.

Mamu says:

Tuesday 29 April, 2008 / 13:04

This article is just utter scare-mongering nonsense as most articles and news stories about this topic have been over the past few months - it is simply not possible to generalise about "drops" in price. There are so many factors involved. It's too simplistic to say a house will be worth its 2004 level. No-one owns the average house, every single home has quirks that affect marketability now and have affected its value over the past 4 years. Let's face it most properties will not fit your predicted 20% drop so what's the point in averaging it?

Dave says:

Tuesday 29 April, 2008 / 17:04

House prices will fall that is a fact. However many of the problems have been caused by alarming headlines for a long time which the banks are now cashing in on. Fact...there is a housing shortage for family homes with gardens. So these will not fall as much as most as will always be in demand. It does depend on the area although the biggest losers will be the city centre blocks that are being built. These prices will plummet. Falling prices are just a correction which will always happen. For most it will not matter unless you are selling up for good. As soon as the banks have stabilised and go back to sensible lending at fair rates all will be well again.

billy says:

Friday 09 May, 2008 / 16:05

So house prices will fall by 20%?

Is that each and every house by exactly 20%?

Or is that 20% an average, made up of some houses falling 27% whilst others only fall 16%?

Just look around you are there any new houses being built anywhere near you? if so ,and think about this is the landowner and developer going to build houses in the knowledge that they are going to drop 20% in 12 months? no  I didnt really think so.

So lets take this guesstimate and mix it with all the other pundits guesses and we may well have a very soft landing of between 3-8% reduction in prices from where they are at today.

Yes I know that some houses will appear to be lower by 20-30% but that is because the vendors had ludicrous values on them to begin with.
The average house is exactly that, average and as such will not suffer a drop of a fifth of it current value.
Peculiar or quirky properties may well be on the nose as will so called  McMansion.

Roll on the next boom.

chum chum says:

Tuesday 17 June, 2008 / 20:17

My prediction is that house prices will fall by 50% and we have only got the greedy stupid bigots to blame. WHo wanted to get rich fast!

I do not feel the government should get involved after all they were constantly warned not to borrow more then they can afford.

My son wanted to buy when I advised him he was willing to listen. He is now laughing all the way whereas before it was his mates who were laughing on him. Who is laughing the loudest now?

freddy says:

Tuesday 17 June, 2008 / 22:59

Well you try and buy a house round here in Cambridge and you will see prices are still going up as there aren't any houses to buy! You have to live somewhere.  Maybe the whole situation is being stoked by media for some headline material??  Perish the thought.

Colin says:

Wednesday 18 June, 2008 / 19:16

I bought my house in Portsmouth in 1999 for a meagre £58,500,whilst I enjoyed watching my home appreciate rapidly in value to a peak of £150,000 Ive not assumed this equity as profit more so the natural fluctuation the housing market endures.My feeling is that greedy armchair amateur investors who chose to reinvest their equity in additional properties in an attempt to make a quick buck are primarily to blame for over inflation in the market.For these people I have no sympathy for the losses they will endure.People need to think of their property as their Homes,and not just an investment.And the good news is surely as prices slump I can upgrade easily and the infinate amount of recently deprived first time buyers can a foot on the ladder,Just bear in mind that property is a much a liabilty as it is a profit returning investment

Emma says:

Thursday 19 June, 2008 / 21:55

Personally I feel the housing rise was caused by the introduction of the minimum wage. Unfortunately it has made everyone I know worse off than ever before as prices on everything have risen way more than wages.

Like everyone else in the country wanting to own their own home I would like to see the prices fall by 40% in the next 2yrs. The quicker the fall the quicker we can get back to rebuilding. Right now too many people are suffering because of inflated prices.

This has left me wondering. If China is booming and potentially like a tide we are heading for bust, who benefitted in the world during the last recession?

eugene says:

Tuesday 24 June, 2008 / 19:55

what  about London? Any thoughts? Seems some areas, as Islington, for example, are dopping in value, but others still steady, not losing price.

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